John Deere Classic Betting Preview

The final PGA TOUR stop before the Open Championship, the John Deere Classic presents a course ripe with opportunity. The field this week will be much weaker than fans have gotten accustomed to in recent weeks. Zero top ten players and just four top 50 players will be in Silvis, Illinois at TPC Deere Run.

Below are the five betting favorites for the John Deere Classic:

  • Daniel Berger +1000
  • Brian Harman +1400
  • Sung-jae Im +1600
  • Russell Henley +1800
  • Kevin Streelman +2500

Yikes.

What this means, however, is that the tournament is there for the taking–and there is a much higher chance of a longshot being crowned as the 2021 John Deere Champ. But before breaking out the longshot bombs, let’s take a look at the John Deere Classic key stats.

TPC Deere Run Course Information

  • Par 71
  • 7,268 yards
  • Bentgrass greens

TPC Deere Run has historically played as a relatively easy track. The fairways are wider than most TOUR tracks, and most players are left with wedges into the bentgrass greens. With fairways simple to hit, GIR% increases across the field, which can turn this tournament into a game of who has the hottest putter.

John Deere Classic Key Stats

Strokes gained on approach is the clear number one factor to consider. I never typically use Strokes Gained Putting in a statistical model. But this tournament is the exception. We also need to account for not just putting, but putting on bentgrass greens.

John Deere Classic Betting Model

  • SG: Approach – 30%
  • SG: Putting – 20%
  • Opps Gained – 20%
  • SG: Birdies or Better- 20%
  • SG: Par 3 – 10%

When factoring in bentgrass greens, here are the top 10 players according to the model over the past 24 rounds:

  1. Patton Kizzire +4000
  2. Cam Davis +3000
  3. Daniel Berger +
  4. Hank Lebioda
  5. Sebastian Munoz
  6. Ryan Moore
  7. Troy Merritt
  8. Kevin Streelman
  9. Russell Henley
  10. Scott Stallings

Patton Kizzire is intriguing, to say the least, there at #1. It’s also worth noting that the stat he ranks the lowest in per this model is SG: Par 3 at #51. The Par 3’s on this course are no joke, which is why I originally included it in the model.

With one additional Par 4 at Deere Run, though, many others instead chose to use SG: Par 4 in their models. So let’s say we replace Par 3 with Par 4. Kizzire further entrenches his hold on the #1 position by ranking #17 over the past 24 rounds in SG: Par 4.

Over the past 24 rounds, Kizzire ranks 4th in SG: Approach, 7th in SG: Putting, 5th in SG: Opps Gained, and 2nd in Birdies or Better.

Another name that would be surprising to see if not for consecutive top-5 finishes is Hank Lebioda. Hank ranks 3rd in SG: Approach, 50th in SG: Putting, 23rd in Opps Gained, 17th in BoB, and 8th in SG: Par 3. I wouldn’t exactly advocate an outright bet on Hank Lebioda, but a top 20 bet might be worth a shot.

The #1 player in Birdies or Better over the past 24 rounds per the model is Sebastian Munoz, who ranks 5th overall. Munoz is incredibly solid across the board, ranking top 30 in all stats the model considers.

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